Nord Stream sabotage and hybrid war on Europe
Anders Puck Nielsen2 HN recommenders · 2022–2023
168K views · commentary · news · Uploaded 2022-10-04
Anders Puck Nielsen analyzes the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage using Kilcullen's theory of liminal warfare and prospect theory. He argues from the operational design that Russia is the most likely culprit, then discusses how hybrid warfare might be used against Europe.
HN points to it as a compact, reasoned case for Russian responsibility, though at least one commenter found the argument unconvincing.
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5 comments from Hacker News
That cause for that event is not undisputed, see [LINK] . You still haven't explained why you think it's doubtful Russia would use sabotage in this way. This is what their entire modus operandi, just think of the various Polonium-210 and Novichok operations. You can't dispute that people are suspecting USA of having done it, does that not harm cohesion inside NATO? [VIDEO]
The Anders Puck Nelson video about this came to the conclusion that it was probably Russia. His reasoning is interesting. [VIDEO]
> what is the most articulate and sensible piece on why the most likely culprit is Russia? I think this video is articulate and sensible: [VIDEO]
He said at the start of that video he discussed his belief about the probability of Russia attacking was covered in this video [VIDEO] > They want people to be panicked by their hybrid warfare Why? People were already panicking about Russia (rolling through Western Europe, using nukes, etc). The argument in the video I linked is not very convincing to me at all. Nobody was ever under any doubt that Russia could bomb some unguarded infrastructure near its border. And he just handwaves the idea that the US could have carried an operation to sabotage the pipeline as a "clandestine activity" (i.e., making it look like an accident) just by hacking it or something. It's a Hollywood analysis of "hackers". Why even fight Russia at all, why not just hack all their military, factories, refineries, communications, and power plants? It might be a fun exercise in simplistic game theory type analysis but taking that and using it to assign Russia as the most likely culprit seems like astounding hubris and naivety.
Anders Puck Nielsen has an under 15 minute video with a compelling explanation for why Russia is most likely to have done it despite the obvious downsides. Just to pick some particular details: At this particular time the primary Russian strategy was to push Europe into a cold and dark winter. Pipelines can be rebuilt and that is not especially difficult when you are making big money from extracting and distributing fossil fuels. Even if you disagree with Anders' conclusions I think the points he raises are generally quite interesting: [VIDEO]