Cambridge Ideas - Professor Risk

Cambridge University2 HN recommenders · 2013–2022
128K views · explainer · evergreen · Uploaded 2009-12-10

David Spiegelhalter, Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk, uses statistics to weigh everyday risks such as bacon sandwiches and cycling. The six-minute piece introduces micromorts as a way to compare the risk of dying.

Recommended as a short, fun introduction to micromorts and thinking about risk.

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3 comments from Hacker News

@cjy2013 · in “Micromort”

Here is great video by Cambridge Ideas about the risk of dying from various activities (measured in micromorts): [VIDEO] The professor's conclusion is that one of the biggest risks is being too cautious.

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@beejiu2016 · in “Cambridge professor on how to stop being manipulated by misleading statistics”

There's a fun video he created with Cambridge University a few years ago, called "Professor Risk". Worth a watch (6 minutes) [VIDEO] Takeaway from the video "I've come to the conclusion that one of the biggest risks is being too cautious."

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@shagie2022 · in “Rogue antibody and mystery pathogen behind AstraZeneca blood clots: study”

The advantage of using micromorts is that they're units that can be added and directly compared. As a populace, we tend to be rather bad at doing fractions and percents - things like mpg - going from 34 to 50 mpg is less of a savings than having a vehicle go from 18 to 28 mpg for the same distance traveled. Consider the problem: you must either do X (1/200 chance of death) or YZ (Y has 1/300 chance of death, Z has 1/300 chance of death). Reworded this becomes: you must either do X (5 micromorts) or YZ (Y is 3.3 micromorts, Z is 3.3 micromorts). And now you've got things that are easier to compare and work with in a scale that we can think about. Most people are doing things on the scale of 0 to 20 micromorts. The more adventurous are doing things that get up to 100 or so. The thrill seekers go up from there. This is also a concept in insurance - [LINK] Cambridge University - Professor Risk [VIDEO] A previous discussion on it from 2013 [LINK]