The Bayesian Trap
Veritasium2 HN recommenders · 2017–2024
4.5M views · explainer · evergreen · Uploaded 2017-04-05
Veritasium explains Bayes' theorem with examples and introduces the 'Bayesian trap', where repeated events get mistaken for inevitable ones. It discusses how priors shape our expectations and behavior.
HN points to it as an accessible introduction to Bayesian reasoning and as inspiration for personal projects.
19:09A Better Default Colormap for Matplotlib | SciPy 2015 | Nathaniel Smith and Stéfan van der Walt
Enthought
58:51DON'T PANIC — Hans Rosling showing the facts about population
Gapminder Foundation
12:04Why Being Delusional is a Superpower
Veritasium
6:31Why Your Vote Doesn't Count
CGP Grey
12:22Is Most Published Research Wrong?
Veritasium
27:19Once you understand game theory, you understand the world.
Veritasium
4:27The Voting System That Should Replace Every Election
CGP Grey
19:10How not to be ignorant about the world | Hans and Ola Rosling
TED
4 comments from Hacker News
Definitely. Another good idea is to show the difference between reality and data can be overwhelmingly significant. Videos demonstrating this with examples: - "The Bayesian Trap" [VIDEO] - "Is Most Research Wrong?" [LINK]
Another problem for the less familiar with the Bayes theorem is what is described as the "Bayesian trap", explained by the youtuber Veritasium: [VIDEO]
So, in order to do your job of maintaining your health , you need need to do all of these jobs: 1. Learn about the symptoms, diagnosis, and treatment of your health problem 2. Assess the severity of the health problem 3. Learn about the experience of other people 4. Get multiple opinions Bonus: 5. Learn about multiple valid solutions 6. Find doctor's blind spots While doing all that, you pay for healthcare, which includes all that. You pay a doctor to know no1, do the no2, remember no3. You then pay for multiple of them to do the same. But then you still get to the point where you have to decide who to believe. And it would be easy if 4 of them say the same thing. You can be pretty sure they are right[1] because statistics. But what happens when they give multiple differing opinions, like here [2]. [1] [VIDEO] [2] [LINK]
Inspired by this Veritasium video: [VIDEO] I'm working on a journal that incorporates Bayesian learning on how aspects of my life affect my mental, physical and social well-being. Having used it for nearly 500 days I plan to turn it into a life accounting and auditing tool. [LINK]